There are 970 homes in Queensridge, many with a gorgeous view of the Badlands Golf Course, which was built on land zoned residential 20 years ago. Now, Badlands is closing and, so far, no adjacent homeowner has come forward with a purchase agreement missing the initialed disclosure that the golf course could end up houses – one of those things you think is never actually going to happen. The HOA doesn’t even have a say.
Even the city is rendered powerless – the only way it could stop residential redevelopment of Badlands would be to commit inverse condemnation. A jury would decide how much money city taxpayers would have to pay. I believe it would number in the tens of millions of dollars. That road would not be fiscally responsible.
There’s a famous case involving the Pappas Family you can read about here, which ended up winning ten times what the City of Las Vegas had offered, in an inverse condemnation action on a parcel about 1% of the land of Badlands today. That cost taxpayers $4.5-million (times 100 is…. gulp)
In September 2015, the owners announced that the golf course would be closing. The HOA has taken the position that it wants city taxpayers to write the check, and move toward condemnation. So the course-side owners who aren’t on the HOA board have had to each invest time in understanding which of the alternatives will provide a better outcome.
Existing zoning would allow three to four homes per acre, with each current golf course owner having one or two lots of the same area (not shape) behind them, each with homes and casitas of comparable square feet.
The owners have proposed an alternative. In their words: “We want to replace an unsafe, unsecured public golf course with 60 or 75 of some of the most luxurious lots in the City. It will undoubtedly have a significant positive impact on the values of adjacent Queensridge homes.”
It would be some of the lowest density in the city, measured in acres per house, not the other way around, over the easternmost 180 acres of the 250-acre parcel. Offsetting it would be a new urban center on the 70 acres closest to Alta and Rampart to complement the existing urban densities in Queensridge Towers, the Sun Coast, and Tivoli Village.
The decision on which of those two development plans will move forward is before the City Council this Wednesday.
Someone told me that home sale prices in Queensridge have fallen 20% since the announcement. I got to digging. I started with a database of all real estate sales inside Queensridge since 1/1/14. I wanted to pick similar homes to see if any trends could be found. I narrowed focus to those homes between 3,300 and 4,700 sq ft. The list was then tagged with or without a golf course view, then by neighborhood. This graph shows a last-four-transaction rolling average of the price per square foot for these homes not on the golf course who use the Alta gate..
Not much change before and after the 9/15 announcement that the Badlands Golf Course was going to be redeveloped. The number of sales per quarter has been about the same through the announcement.
In the King Williams section, homes off the golf course fetched $163/sf on average, for units without pools. Since the announcement, prices for units without pools have averaged $163/sf, showing no change at all. There were 2 in 2014, 3 in 2015 before the Badlands announcement and 3 so far in 2016 – small numbers upon which to base statistical conclusions.
I don’t see a 20% drop, at least for those not on the golf course.
Looking at homes on the golf course, statistics becomes a fuzzier tool because the number of sales is smaller (because the number of homes on the course is smaller), I did the same query, selecting homes with livable areas between 3,300 and 4,700 sf. Then, for example, at the section of Queensridge using the Alta gate, the stretch of homes from 9301 to 9699 Queen Charlotte all have lots about the same size, swimming pools, and no short or foreclosure sales. Here’s a graph of the 9 transactions’ last-four-transactions rolling average $ per square foot:
Perhaps that’s a recent drop in value, but at the right and left edge of the graph the line is only represented by a single transaction, and is prone to become less reliable an average. But the solid, slightly upward line between those points means home values have held.
Finally, I wanted to see how the mansions have done – homes on the golf course exceeding 5,000 sq ft. Here’s the graph:
There’s a lot more up and down on this graph. That’s probably because these homes are so unique, and not comparable. That means the whole graph above is probably not a valid representation of any change in value due to the golf course view. However, we can see that since the announcement, houses have continued to sell, including a record setting sale in January of 2016, $7.8-million, at $610/sq ft.
Overall, Queensridge dollars-per-foot transaction values are up slightly in 2016 compared with 2015. Will replacing an unsafe, unsecured public golf course with 60 or 75 of some of the most luxurious lots in the City have as the owners’ say, a significant positive impact on the values of adjacent Queensridge homes?
Here is the raw data in Excel that I used to prepare these charts. Please email me if I can explain anything in it.